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	<title>Online Marketing Analytics SEO SEM &#187; ppc analytics</title>
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		<title>Marketing Analytics &#8211; Predictive Modeling(I)</title>
		<link>http://www.praveenkodur.com/blog/2009/07/marketing-analytics-i-predictive-modeling/</link>
		<comments>http://www.praveenkodur.com/blog/2009/07/marketing-analytics-i-predictive-modeling/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 11:51:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>kpraveenkumars</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analytics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google Products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marketing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Online Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Product Marketing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[data mining]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ppc analytics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[predictive analytics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.praveenkodur.com/blog/?p=82</guid>
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is the most widely used area of data mining techniques, in sales and marketing to understand customer and their behavior on various products offered by the company. It helps companies in understanding and predicting customer behavior for each specific situation and therefore introduce sophistication in targeting. There are lot of information generally collected about the customer such as demographic, geographic, lifestyle, attitudinal, behavior and many more. These data can be efficiently used to model customer behavior under different circumstances (situations). Through effective models we can improve ROI of marketing efforts &amp; campaigns to make an impact in the overall profitability of the business.</p>
<p>Some of the common uses of analytical models are:</p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Acquiring new customers:</span></strong> Acquiring new customers is generally a big cost for the company, with increase in prices on various acquisition channels, companies find it hard to reduce cost in acquiring good profitable customers. Predictive modeling to certain extent becomes very useful in reducing costs in acquiring right customers and increase profitability. It also helps in designing marketing offers, special campaigns for customers to reach out to them.</p>
<p>Predictive models use historical data of customer attributes to understand relationships between attributes and their specific response or behavior. The output of predictive model is generally to predict a future response of the customer with their present data. These models are generally used to rank a list of prospective customers on the likelihood of their predicted response. This is very useful as it helps take present decisions. Other factors can also be fit into the response such as risk of acquiring customers like credit risk, or the cost of retaining customer. We can also predict response to each specific product, which helps in better targeting the customer and increases chances of acquiring them or even for cross selling products</p>
<p>(<span style="text-decoration: underline;">http://www.stochasticsolutions.com/pdf/CrossSell.pdf</span>).</p>
<p>Additionally, there might be situations where it might not be easy to connect both customer and the response desired. Additionally there may be situations where various responses of customers are also valuable. For example, a customer might purchase a product after visiting the site 4 times, each time the customer performs a action like search, sending an enquiry, contacting user, reading knowledge material etc. Each action may be valuable to business therefore need to included in the model. In all such cases we need to use proxies to understand purchase behavior. Model building is a tedious task, but very worthy effort in increasing profitability.</p>
<p>In process there are additional outputs generated like customer profiling, customer segmentation, clustering and affinity pairs which is very valuable in developing products for customers.</p>
<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_analytics">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_analytics</a></p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Customers Retention</span>:</strong> The second problem is of retaining existing customers, companies are willing to provide offers to retain customers. The data mining problem will translate into finding the customers at risk (or customers who are looking to switch) and additionally identify those customers who are more likely to change behaviour due the marketing offer given by the company. (<span style="text-decoration: underline;">http://www.stochasticsolutions.com/pdf/FinanceRetention.pdf</span>).</p>
<p>The data useful will be behavior of customers before attrition for certain time duration along with their demographics, attitudinal &amp; behavioral patterns.</p>
<p>Predicting customer attrition rate is separate from predicting their behavioral change because of promotional offer. These models are extremely useful where markets are saturated and acquiring new customers becomes increasingly difficult.</p>
<p>Marketing techniques for retaining customer could backfire sometimes, resulting in loss of customer due to persuation from the company. There are also certain customers who would attrite irrespective of any marketing offered to them. Capturing this behavioral difference can be done through Control Groups, Test Groups &amp; Hold Groups. This method is called as Differential Response modeling or Incremental impact model or Uplift model or Net model. Here is more info on the same: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uplift_modelling">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uplift_modelling</a>, and few white papers on the same <span style="text-decoration: underline;">http://www.stochasticsolutions.com/pdf/SavedAndDrivenAway.pdf</span>. Customers in Control Group are randomly targeted, Customers in Test Groups are targeted based on model, Hold Group Customers are not considered for targeting of offer. Results of test and experiment is used in building the Net Model.</p>
<p>The industries where these techniques will be highly useful are Financial Services, Retail, Telecom, Internet Companies and Software Houses.</p>
<p>Do check back for more articles on this topic.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>List of resources to find more information about Analytics</strong></span></p>
<p>1) http://www.destinationcrm.com/Articles/CRM-News/Daily-News/Predictive-Analytics-Can-Pinpoint-Profitable-Customers-52164.aspx</p>
<p>2) http://scientificmarketer.com/search/label/response</p>
<p>3) http://www.redclaymedia.com/response_modeling.php</p>
<p>4) http://stochasticsolutions.com/retention.html</p>
<p>5) http://www.information-management.com/specialreports/2008_62/10000747-1.html?ET=dmreview:e323:1015879a:&amp;st=email</p>
<p>6) http://www.information-management.com/issues/2007_52/10001990-1.html</p>
<p>7) http://www.predictiveanalyticsinsight.com/articles/callcenter.htm</p>
<p> <img src='http://www.praveenkodur.com/blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_cool.gif' alt='8)' class='wp-smiley' /> http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/predictive_analytics.php</p>
<p>9) http://www.marketingprofs.com/4/shearer1.asp</p>
<p>10) http://semphonic.blogs.com/semangel/2009/01/predictive-analytics-getting-a-legup-on-where-analytics-is-headed-.html</p>
<p>The Original article is present on <a title="Online Marketing India" href="http://www.praveenkodur.com/blog" target="_blank">http://www.praveenkodur.com/blog</a></p>
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